Texas Holdem Poker - Semi Bluff
Betting into a pot when you are behind with a chance of improving into the winning hand.
We will use the Poker Example from the previous Texas Holdem Strategy lesson.
$10 in the pot. You have a Flush Draw and 1 opponent after the flop so your chance of catching your flush with two cards to come is 35%. But this time you act first. We know that if you bet and your opponent calls you will have a winning % of 35% and a positive EV of $1.10.
However since you are first to act, there is a chance that your opponent will fold. Let’s assume it’s 30%. The new EV calculation is:
There is a 30% chance our opponent will fold and we will win the $10 in the pot. There is a 70% chane our opponenet will call. If he calls, we have a Expected Value of $1.10.
So our new Expected Value is $3.77!!!
Winning % is:
Here is an example with a big stack: Assume we have $50 instead of $8.
(30% * $10) + [70% * (35% * $60 + 65% * -$50)]
We still win $10 if our bluff succeds. But we lose $50 sixty-five percent of the time when called. So our new Expected Value is -$8.5!!!
So, be careful not to overuse this move, especially when you are big stacked. Our example assumes that we win our hand if we hit the flush, which is NOT always the case.
Post a comment
You must be logged in to post a comment.