Expected Value (EV) of Your Texas Holdem Poker Hand
The sum of all possible values for a random variable, each value multiplied by its probability of occurrence.
Simple Example: Coin Flip. Heads you win $100. Tails you lose $100. The EV is 0:
(50% * $100) + (50% * -$100) = 0
Poker Example: $10 in the pot. You have a Flush Draw and 1 opponent after the flop so your chance of catching your flush with two cards to come is 35%. You have $8 left and your opponent bets $8. Should you call?
Let’s calculate EV:
There is a 35% chance you will win $18 (the $10 in the pot plus your opponent’s $8 bet). There is a 65% chance you will lose your $8. So you have a positive EV of $1.10. This does not even take into consideration Implied Odds, which could make the situation even more profitable.
Assuming unlimited bank roll, you should call even though your winning percentage is only 35%
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